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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-10T16:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-10T16:00Z
CME Note: Associated with X8.2 flare from AR 12673. Arrival at of CME-associated disturbance DSCOVR has no clear flux-rope signature, shock only.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T19:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -50
Dst min. time: 2017-09-13T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (NSSC SEPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0% 
MAX solar wind speed : (752,1187)km/s
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4 - 6
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) 

Characteristics parameters of CME on Sep 11 for propagation:
propagation velocity (km/s): 2190 km/s
Longitude (deg): W37
Latitude (deg): N04
Angular width (deg): 86
Information of related flare:
YYYYMMDD HHMM  MAX  END LAT LON   IB
20170910 1535 1606 1631 N04 W36 X8.2
Lead Time: 34.53 hour(s)
Difference: 14.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2017-09-11T08:54Z
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